The global renewable energy sector is surging ahead, with a record-breaking year in 2023 and robust growth anticipated in the coming years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Meanwhile, South Africa’s draft Integrated Resource Plan of 2023 (IRP 2023) suggests a potential slowdown in renewables investment.
In its ‘Renewables 2023’ report, the IEA revealed that 507 GW of renewable-energy capacity was added in 2023, pushing the global installed base to approximately 3,600 MW. Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems accounted for a substantial three-quarters of these additions.
China led the charge, commissioning as much solar PV capacity in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022. China’s wind power additions also saw a remarkable 66% year-on-year increase, with the IEA predicting that China could meet its 2030 wind and solar PV targets by 2024, six years ahead of schedule.
Europe, the US, and Brazil achieved all-time highs in renewable energy capacity, with forecasts indicating that solar PV and onshore wind deployment in these regions will more than double in the next five years compared to the previous period.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see significant growth, with approximately 64 GW of new renewable capacity projected between 2023 and 2028. However, the region’s outlook depends heavily on South Africa’s IRP 2023, which suggests a less ambitious approach.
The IEA’s predictions indicate that global renewable capacity will reach 7,300 GW by 2028, with over 3,700 GW set to be installed during this period, exceeding the cumulative installations of the past decade. Solar PV and wind energy will make up 95% of this expansion, with renewables overtaking coal as the leading global electricity source by early 2025.
To meet the COP28 goal of tripling capacity by 2030, governments must address policy uncertainties, administrative challenges, insufficient grid infrastructure, and financing gaps in emerging and developing economies, says IEA executive director Fatih Birol. He highlights that onshore wind and solar PV are now more cost-effective than new and existing fossil fuel plants in most countries.
The report notes a nearly 50% decline in solar PV module prices in 2023, with further reductions expected due to excess manufacturing capacity. Conversely, the wind industry faces supply chain disruptions, increased costs, and prolonged permitting timelines, requiring policy attention.
The IEA’s report concludes that the world’s capacity to generate renewable electricity is expanding at an unprecedented pace, offering a genuine opportunity to achieve the 2030 global capacity tripling goal.
In South Africa, however, the future of renewables investment appears uncertain, despite the country’s abundant solar and wind resources. The draft IRP 2023, currently open for public consultation, allocates more resources to gas-to-power installations and reduces allocations for solar PV and wind relative to the previous policy.
The increased gas-to-power allocation stems from the consolidation of two Ministerial determinations, impacting other technologies. New wind capacity is expected to drop to 4,468 MW from the previous 17,742 MW, and new solar PV capacity is set to decline to 3,615 MW from 8,288 MW.
