Despite operating for more than 150 days without implementing rotational power cuts, South African utility company Eskom has refrained from officially declaring an end to loadshedding. This period without loadshedding coincided with the high-demand winter months, offering some relief to South Africans weary of frequent power outages. However, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane remains cautious, suggesting that the company might formally announce the end of loadshedding by March 2025, depending on the return of delayed power units.
Speaking during the company’s summer outlook presentation, Marokane emphasized that no loadshedding is expected during the upcoming season, provided that unplanned breakdowns stay below 13,000 megawatts (MW). However, he also warned that if breakdowns exceed 15,000 MW, Eskom might have to reintroduce rotational power cuts, potentially reaching up to Stage 2. These levels of loadshedding could mean several hours without electricity for consumers each day, depending on their location.
The recent improvement in Eskom’s operational performance has been noticeable. Since April, unplanned capacity losses have averaged 12,400 MW, a significant drop from the 15,500 MW average during the same period last year. The average loss decreased further to 10,500 MW in August. Marokane attributed this improvement to a “structural shift” in the performance of the coal fleet. The energy availability factor (EAF) for coal plants has risen from 57% in April to over 67% since July. This improvement reflects better maintenance practices and perhaps more reliable equipment operation.
Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom’s group executive for generation, noted that these operational gains allowed the company to reduce its diesel expenditure by R10 billion between April 1 and August 15 compared to the same period in 2023. That year marked one of the worst for loadshedding in South Africa’s history. The reduced reliance on diesel generators, often used as a last resort to keep the lights on, is a positive development, indicating greater stability in the core power generation fleet.
Despite these positive signs, Eskom has chosen not to declare an official end to loadshedding. This decision stems partly from delays in bringing back into service or commissioning several large power units. The delays involve three units each at the Kusile and Medupi coal stations and at the Koeberg nuclear power station. These stations are key components of South Africa’s energy infrastructure and crucial for ensuring a stable electricity supply.
One of the significant delays concerns Koeberg Unit 2, whose return to service has been pushed back by two months to December due to welding issues that arose during an extended maintenance period. This maintenance is part of efforts to secure a 20-year life extension for the unit. The delay has caused concern, as nuclear power is a critical part of South Africa’s energy mix, providing reliable baseload power that is less affected by the fluctuations in demand or the availability of coal and diesel.
Another major delay is at Medupi Unit 4, which has been offline since a generator explosion in August 2021. The unit’s restart has been postponed from August this year to March next year. The delay is due to “unexpected design issues” related to integrating a second-hand generator stator, a component crucial for the unit’s operation. The setback is frustrating for Eskom, as Medupi was expected to contribute significantly to the grid, easing the burden on other power stations and reducing the risk of loadshedding.
Additionally, the synchronization of Kusile Unit 6 has been delayed until December because of material shortages and delays in the acid cleaning process. This unit, like the others, is essential for boosting Eskom’s capacity to meet demand, particularly during the high-maintenance summer months. Delays in returning such units to service put additional strain on the rest of the fleet, increasing the risk of breakdowns and power cuts.
Despite these challenges, Nxumalo remains optimistic about Eskom’s prospects. He stated that the additional 2,500 MW expected from these delayed units by the end of the financial year would significantly improve the security of electricity supply. However, he also expressed disappointment over the delays, acknowledging the frustration they cause for both Eskom and its customers.
Looking forward, Eskom’s goal is to improve the energy availability factor (EAF) to 70% within the next 24 to 36 months. Achieving this target would mark a significant improvement in Eskom’s operational performance, potentially reducing the likelihood of loadshedding in the future. The company’s ability to meet this goal will depend on its success in returning the delayed units to service and maintaining the rest of the fleet.
