KEY POINTS
- U.S. power demand is projected to break records in 2025 and 2026.
- Renewable energy sources are expected to increase their market share.
- Natural gas use in power generation is forecasted to decline slightly.
The United States is set to break new records in power consumption in 2025 and 2026, driven by rising demand from artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency mining, and increased electricity use for heating and transportation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecasts that total power demand will rise to 4,179 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025 and 4,239 billion kWh in 2026. This marks a steady climb from 2024’s record of 4,082 billion kWh.
Breaking it down by sector, the report predicts residential power sales will reach 1,524 billion kWh, while commercial customers will consume 1,458 billion kWh.
According to Reuters, industrial consumption is expected to reach 1,054 billion kWh, making it one of the highest levels recorded in over two decades.
Shift in Energy Sources: Renewables Gain Ground
As the demand for power rises, the sources of electricity generation are shifting. According to EIA data, natural gas will remain the top generation source although it is expected to decrease from 43 percent in 2024 to 39 percent in 2026.
Meanwhile, coal’s contribution to electricity generation will decline slightly from 16 percent in 2024 and 2025 to 15 percent in 2026.
The utilization of wind and solar renewable energy sources will increase at a projected rate from 23 percent in 2024 to 25 percent in 2025 and finally reaching 27 percent in 2026.
The forecast indicates that nuclear power will continue providing 19 percent of total energy production throughout the next two years, thus supporting its status as a dependable energy supply.
Natural gas consumption and market trends
Energy consumption will rise but the production of electricity from natural gas is predicted to decrease minimally to 35.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 from 36.9 bcfd in 2024.
However, gas sales are expected to increase for residential consumers, reaching 13.1 bcfd, and for commercial customers, at 9.7 bcfd.
The current levels stand lower than the former peak numbers where residential demands hit 14.3 bcfd in 1996 and industrial consumption reached 23.8 bcfd in 1973.
Industrial gas consumption is projected to decrease slightly while expanding electrical demands coupled with new climate-friendly energy standards will redefine national energy operations.
High energy consumption numbers will stress the energy industry, as it needs to handle supply problems while implementing sustainable processes and transitioning to renewable energy sources.
