KEY POINTS
- Sudan’s oil sector is unravelling as the war closes in on key fields and pipelines.
- South Sudan’s exports through Sudan have become entangled in political pressure and security threats.
- Repeated attacks, ruptured pipelines and rising operational costs are pushing the industry towards failure.
Sudan’s once-critical oil sector is edging closer to outright breakdown as the conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, RSF, continues to engulf vital energy hubs across the west of the country.
Fighting around long-protected fields, drone strikes on strategic facilities and growing political suspicion have steadily choked operations that underpin both Sudan’s budget and South Sudan’s export lifeline.
Officials in Khartoum say the decline has been dramatic. Energy Minister Mohamed Abdallah estimates that Sudan has lost roughly half of its domestic production since the war erupted in April 2023. Field output in West Kordofan has been repeatedly disrupted and pipeline flows from South Sudan have come under consistent attack.
Before the conflict, crude passing through Port Sudan earned the government around 146 million dollars each month in transit and processing fees. With repeated strikes and sabotage along the route, the sum has dropped sharply. Rough internal estimates suggest current monthly earnings may be closer to 48 million dollars at best.
The situation deteriorated further in March 2024 when the Ministry of Energy declared force majeure on all oil exports after a major rupture in the pipeline system. For seven months Sudan received nothing from transit fees on South Sudanese crude, while Juba’s treasury bled an estimated seven million dollars per day in lost income. Exports only resumed late in December 2024, and even then at barely half the pre-war rate, falling from about 150,000 barrels per day to around 90,000.
The conflict crept even deeper into the industry when the Rapid Support Forces seized the Balila field two and a half years ago, pulling previously insulated West Kordofan into direct confrontation. Industry figures now warn that the RSF could set its sights on Heglig, one of the last significant strongholds still held by the army.
Export tensions deepen as Sudan questions South Sudan’s neutrality
The disruptions have also soured relations between Juba and Port Sudan. A member of the Sudanese Oil Workers Association said officials in Khartoum increasingly accuse South Sudan of drifting from a neutral position and of quietly facilitating Emirati-linked initiatives connected to the Rapid Support Forces.
Analysts say attitudes in Khartoum have hardened. Energy researcher Hani Osman believes Sudan now views South Sudan’s export route as much a political tool as an economic artery, with Juba under pressure to signal its distance from the RSF.
Attacks have persisted regardless, including drone strikes on Heglig in mid-November. South Sudan today pumps roughly 70,000 barrels per day, about two thirds of its pre-war level, moving crude from the Palogue fields to Bashair port.
Yet the system remains fragile. An employee based in Heglig said the flow from the south could stop abruptly if any one of the many tensions between the army, the RSF and the government in Juba escalates.
A diplomatic source added that Port Sudan officials privately urged South Sudan’s foreign minister during October talks to maintain flexible and cooperative ties if it wants to safeguard its economic interests, particularly oil exports. Sudan, the source said, fears that South Sudanese officials with ties to Abu Dhabi could be exploring projects aimed at aiding RSF fighters along the border.
Economist Ahmed bin Omar calculates that Sudan lost about 320 million dollars due to the halt in South Sudanese exports. He argues that transit rights have now shifted from a stable source of revenue to a bargaining chip that Sudan can threaten to withdraw whenever political strains intensify.
The pressure on Sudan’s own fields is no less severe. West Kordofan’s sites, once central to domestic supply, have suffered repeated shocks. Although the army still clings to Heglig, the surrounding towns are controlled by the RSF.
Ayman Maldo, who works in the field, said production has fallen steeply as companies contend with soaring insurance costs and rising risks. He said machinery that previously cost about 25,000 dollars per day now costs twice as much.
Drone attacks last month destroyed crucial control equipment in Heglig. Oil workers fear the strikes are a precursor to an RSF attempt to seize the site and move eastwards towards installations nearer to Port Sudan. Maldo said companies feel exposed and worry that the region could turn into a central battleground without warning.
Researcher Hani Othman noted that the army’s loss of Babnusa on 1 December has heightened concerns that Heglig is next. Uncertainty has forced companies to operate well below capacity, largely because the army has been unable to secure the surrounding territory.
The RSF’s capture of Balila in October 2023 dealt another blow. The field once produced around 70,000 barrels per day but had already sunk to roughly 16,000 due to years of instability. Engineer Mohamed Abdo estimates reserves at no less than 1.4 million barrels, yet the infrastructure feeding the Al-Jaili refinery in Khartoum North has been badly damaged.
As production collapses, Sudan has begun importing close to 90 percent of its fuel needs, a stark reversal from the years when western fields supplied the bulk of domestic consumption. Abdo believes the RSF’s recent advance on Babnusa is directly linked to its proximity to Heglig, the government’s remaining stronghold in the region.
