KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s solar market enters 2026 with mixed expectations: recovery potential exists, but structural challenges could limit growth.
- Falling module prices and better battery storage boost adoption, yet prolonged price compression may squeeze margins and reduce investment.
- Government initiatives and innovative financing models are expanding access, but long-term growth depends on regulatory clarity and financing stability.
As Nigeria enters 2026, solar industry executives and energy analysts are divided on the sector’s prospects. Some predict a rebound fueled by stabilizing markets and expanding off-grid solutions, while others warn that regulatory gaps, financing challenges, and thin profit margins could slow growth.
The divergence reflects broader uncertainty driven by global supply chains, policy shifts, and uneven energy demand across emerging and developed markets.
Falling solar module prices, improved battery storage, and innovative financing models such as pay-as-you-go systems and carbon-linked funding have increased the sector’s affordability and reliability.
Executives like Aisha Bulila, Managing Director of SolarTech Renewables Ltd., see 2026 as a potential recovery year. “Energy demand is rising faster than utilities can keep up with, and solar remains the fastest solution,” she said. Similarly, Yischai Beinisch, CEO of Daystar Power Group, highlighted growing adoption among businesses as a cost-effective and reliable solution.
Low-cost panels present new challenges
While declining prices benefit consumers, overcapacity in global manufacturing has squeezed margins for developers and installers. Analysts caution that prolonged price compression could lead to market consolidation, reduced investment in innovation, and job losses. Ibrahim Danjuma, a policy analyst with the African Clean Energy Initiative, emphasized that “low prices alone do not guarantee a healthy market,” noting that financing and regulatory clarity remain critical.
The Nigerian government and agencies such as the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) have taken steps to boost solar adoption. Initiatives include a 7.5KW mini-grid in Anambra State and proposed regulations allowing solar users to sell excess electricity to the national grid.
Nigeria imported over 4 million solar panels in 2023, valued at $200 million, with imports reaching N125.29 billion by early 2025. Installed solar capacity reached 385.7 MW in 2024, reflecting modest but growing momentum in both public and private sector adoption.
