KEY POINTS
- Economists project that listing Dangote Refinery could push Nigeria’s stock market value beyond $140 billion, more than doubling current capitalization.
- The refinery plans a phased IPO, starting with institutional investors before opening to retail shareholders.
- Shares may be bought in naira, while dividends are paid in dollars, backed by strong export revenue projections.
A planned initial public offering (IPO) of Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery could dramatically expand the size of Nigeria’s capital market, potentially pushing total stock market capitalisation beyond $140 billion.
The projection was made by renowned economist Bismarck Rewane, who said the listing of the mega-refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) would more than double current market value and mark one of the most significant milestones in the history of Nigeria’s equities market.
Nigeria’s market capitalisation currently stands at about N105 trillion ($74 billion).
NGX Could Surpass N200 Trillion Valuation
Speaking at a financial summit in Lagos over the weekend, Rewane, who is chief executive of Financial Derivatives Company and chairman of FCMB Asset Management, said the refinery’s listing at prevailing valuations could raise the NGX’s capitalization above N200 trillion ($140 billion).
According to him, such a development would significantly deepen market liquidity, broaden investor participation, and place Nigeria among the world’s largest emerging-market stock exchanges.
He described the potential listing as transformational, given the scale of the refinery and its central role in Africa’s energy landscape
The outlook comes as Dangote Petroleum Refinery moves closer to a long-anticipated public listing.
The company’s chief executive officer, British executive David Bird, appointed in August 2025, said advisers, bankers, and legal teams are intensifying preparations ahead of the offering.
“April will be extremely busy,” Bird said, indicating that work on the IPO is entering a critical phase.
