KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s crude oil exports are projected to drop 14 per cent in March to about 793,000 bpd from roughly 922,000 bpd in February.
- Sharp declines in Bonga and Forcados loadings outweigh modest gains in Qua Iboe and Bonny Light.
- Lower export volumes could pressure oil revenues, foreign exchange earnings and broader economic stability.
Nigeria’s crude oil exports are projected to fall by about 14 per cent in March, with scheduled loadings for four major crude grades estimated at roughly 793,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The projection, based on preliminary crude loading programmes reported by Reuters, indicates renewed volatility in Nigeria’s export flows despite government efforts to stabilise production and strengthen foreign exchange inflows.
March loadings are significantly lower than the approximately 922,000 bpd scheduled for export in February, pointing to a sharp month-on-month drop.
Mixed Performance Across Key Crude Grades
Preliminary data shows uneven movements across Nigeria’s four main crude streams, with modest gains in some grades outweighed by steep declines in others.
Qua Iboe loadings are expected to rise to about 184,000 bpd in March, from around 170,000 bpd in February.
Bonny Light exports are also projected to increase slightly to roughly 282,000 bpd, up from about 269,000 bpd the previous month.
In contrast, Bonga crude loadings are scheduled to fall sharply to approximately 61,000 bpd, down from about 139,000 bpd in February.
Forcados exports are expected to drop to around 266,000 bpd, compared with roughly 344,000 bpd in February.
The heavy reductions in Bonga and Forcados volumes more than offset gains recorded in Qua Iboe and Bonny Light.
Nigeria’s crude loading schedules often experience significant month-to-month swings due to a combination of operational, technical and market-related factors.
Security challenges and infrastructure constraints in the Niger Delta, including pipeline vandalism, crude theft and repair delays, continue to affect production and export reliability.
Market dynamics also influence demand for specific grades, as refiners adjust purchases based on pricing, quality differentials and global supply conditions.
