KEY POINTS
- Eskom warns load-shedding could return around 2029–2030 if new gas-fired power plants are delayed and coal retirements continue.
- Lack of domestic LNG production and long construction timelines make rapid deployment of gas power challenging.
- Renewable energy paired with battery storage and future green hydrogen could provide alternatives, but short-term planning is crucial to avoid power shortages.
South Africa’s power utility Eskom has warned that load-shedding could return near the end of the decade if planned new gas power plants are delayed and coal power retirements proceed as scheduled.
The warning comes from Eskom’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2026 to 2030, which assesses electricity supply and demand over the next five years.
Dependence on Gas and Construction Challenges
South Africa currently has no large-scale liquefied natural gas production, which means LNG would need to be imported. Building new CCGT plants is also subject to lengthy construction timelines and potential delays, as seen with Eskom’s past projects, including Kusile and Medupi, which took much longer than planned.
Environmental opposition to domestic oil and gas exploration further complicates the rapid rollout of gas power. Analysts suggest that while gas can help meet peak demand, it is unlikely to fully replace coal as a baseload source in the near term.
South Africa currently has no large-scale liquefied natural gas production, which means LNG would need to be imported. Building new CCGT plants is also subject to lengthy construction timelines and potential delays, as seen with Eskom’s past projects, including Kusile and Medupi, which took much longer than planned.
Environmental opposition to domestic oil and gas exploration further complicates the rapid rollout of gas power. Analysts suggest that while gas can help meet peak demand, it is unlikely to fully replace coal as a baseload source in the near term.
