KEY POINTS
- NERC reports that Nigeria’s power plants operated at only 36 per cent availability in January 2026.
- Grid frequency breached prescribed limits, raising concerns about system stability.
- High electricity demand and weak transmission infrastructure continue to strain the national grid.
Nigeria’s electricity grid continued to struggle with low generation availability and unstable system frequency in January 2026, highlighting persistent structural and operational weaknesses in the country’s power sector.
These challenges were outlined in the January 2026 Operational Performance Factsheet released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, which painted a troubling picture of grid reliability despite the country’s significant installed generation capacity.
The report revealed a sharp mismatch between the power Nigeria can theoretically generate and what is practically available for dispatch, alongside frequency deviations that threaten the stability of the national grid.
According to NERC, grid-connected power plants operated well below their installed capacity throughout January, reflecting ongoing availability constraints across the generation segment.
Nigeria’s total installed generation capacity stood at 13,625 megawatts during the month. However, only an average of 4,901 megawatts was available for dispatch at any given time, translating to a Plant Availability Factor of just 36 per cent.
Despite the low availability, most of the power that was generated was absorbed by the grid, leaving little room for operational flexibility or reserve margins within the system.
Grid frequency breaches raise stability concerns
NERC noted that the average lower grid frequency for January stood at 49.03Hz, while the average upper frequency reached 50.66Hz. Both figures exceeded the prescribed operating limits of 49.75Hz to 50.25Hz, signaling ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand in real time.
Such deviations increase the risk of system disturbances and large-scale outages, particularly in a grid that already operates close to its maximum tolerance.
While generation availability remained low, demand for electricity stayed strong. The report recorded an Average Load Factor of 90 per cent, meaning that about 4,421 megawatt-hours per hour of available power was dispatched and consumed.
This high load factor suggests that nearly all available electricity was being utilized, underscoring the lack of spinning reserves and the system’s limited ability to absorb shocks when faults occur.
Nigeria’s electricity challenges are rooted in years of underinvestment, ageing infrastructure, and weak execution across the power value chain, particularly in transmission.
Investigations show that several 330kV and 132kV transmission lines have been in operation for decades and are increasingly prone to faults. Sector insiders say funding announcements often outpace execution, with projects slowed by procurement delays, right-of-way disputes, and weak project supervision.
The transmission network’s fragility has been further compounded by delays in completing key projects under the Presidential Power Initiative, limiting the grid’s ability to evacuate power efficiently and maintain system stability.
