KEY POINTS
- Iran threatens to block oil exports from the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz, if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue.
- Donald Trump warns of overwhelming retaliation, promising the U.S. would strike Iran “twenty times harder” if global oil shipments are disrupted.
- Oil markets remain volatile, with prices surging and then falling sharply amid war fears, leadership changes in Iran, and potential sanctions adjustments.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that no oil will leave the Middle East if the ongoing attacks by the United States and Israel persist, escalating tensions in an already volatile conflict.
The warning came as hostilities between Iran and the U.S.–Israel alliance intensified following weeks of air and missile strikes across Iranian territory that began in late February.
Iranian officials said they would determine when the war ends, rejecting comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that suggested Washington could bring the conflict to a swift conclusion.
A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps described Trump’s remarks as “nonsense,” reiterating Tehran’s stance that continued attacks would trigger a regional oil blockade.
The threat focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Any disruption to shipping through the strait could send shockwaves across global energy markets.
Trump Warns of Massive Retaliation
President Trump has responded with strong warnings, saying the United States would dramatically escalate its military response if Iran interferes with oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit twenty times harder than they have been so far,” Trump said.
He also claimed that U.S. attacks had already inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military infrastructure and predicted the war could end sooner than the four-week timeline he had earlier suggested.
However, Washington’s broader objectives remain unclear. While U.S. officials say the goal is to dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear programme, Trump has hinted that the conflict may only end with a more compliant Iranian government in power.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s ultimate aim is to dismantle Iran’s clerical leadership system, arguing that the Iranian people must eventually overthrow what he called a “tyrannical regime.”
The conflict took a dramatic political turn after Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new Supreme Leader following the killing of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The leadership change appears to have hardened Tehran’s stance and dimmed hopes of a quick diplomatic resolution.
Iran’s U.N. ambassador reported that at least 1,332 civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the beginning of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
