KEY POINTS
- Brent crude surged 53% in March, reaching $112 per barrel, driven by US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
- Heating oil and kerosene prices jumped over 77% and 60%, respectively, affecting global and Nigerian fuel costs.
- Dangote Petroleum increased domestic petrol prices, while market observers warn prices could reach $180 per barrel if tensions persist.
Global crude oil prices closed the week ending March 20, 2026, at $112 per barrel, marking an 8.22% weekly increase. Brent Crude Futures have climbed more than 53% this month alone, driven by escalating tensions from the ongoing US-Iran War.
Central to the supply concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometre chokepoint between Iran and Oman, where shipping disruptions have intensified amid Iran’s retaliatory actions against the United States and Israel.
Crude Oil prices have surged over 83% in 2026, approaching the $118 per barrel high last seen in May 2022. Brent crude broke past the $93 resistance level in early March, a benchmark not reached since September 2023, reflecting heightened global energy market anxieties. The spike accelerated following the United States’ Operation “Epic Fury” against Iran on February 28, which significantly impacted supply expectations.
The surge in crude has pushed up prices for refined products. Month-to-date, Heating Oil futures have jumped more than 77%, reaching over $4.6 per gallon, up from $2.8 at the start of the month. Kerosene futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange have climbed over 60% to approximately ¥140,000 per kilolitre. In Nigeria, petrol prices remain sensitive to imports, despite improvements in domestic refining capacity.
Domestic impact: Dangote Petroleum raises petrol prices
Reacting to the global supply shock, Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised the ex-depot gantry price for petrol from N1,245 to N1,275 on March 21, following a previous increase from N1,175 to N1,245. African governments, including South Africa, are reportedly increasing inquiries to secure alternative fuel supplies amid disruptions caused by the conflict.
The International Energy Agency has also recommended reducing air travel and implementing other measures to curb jet fuel demand.
Global crude is on track for a month-to-date rise exceeding 56%, mirroring previous surges seen during COVID-19 supply disruptions in May 2020. If Middle East tensions persist, prices could surpass $112 per barrel. Saudi officials have warned that a prolonged energy shock and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices as high as $180 per barrel.
This crucial shipping route serves as the primary export path for oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE to international markets.
