KEY POINTS
- Dangote Refinery produced an average of 18 million litres of petrol daily, far below the projected 35 million litres.
- Nigeria’s petrol consumption rose to 56.7 million litres per day, with imports filling almost half of total demand.
- State-run refineries remain largely idle, leaving Dangote and a few modular plants to carry the burden of domestic supply.
The Dangote Refinery supplied an average of just over 18 million litres of petrol a day between October 2024 and October 2025, well below the volumes previously touted by government officials, according to new data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
The figures highlight the persistent shortfall in domestic fuel supply and underline the risks associated with policy moves aimed at tightening control over imports.
Fresh figures from the authority’s October 2025 State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet show that the refinery’s output; 18.03 million litres per day on average, stands at barely half the 35 million litres per day the regulator had announced would be available by this period.
The discrepancy has revived concerns about whether Nigeria can rely on its refineries to meet rising demand without inviting fresh rounds of supply pressure.
Consumption Surges as Imports Fill the Gap Left by Idle State Refineries
Despite those assurances, the latest data indicate that demand continues to outpace what Nigeria’s refineries can deliver. Daily petrol consumption rose to an average of 56.7 million litres in October 2025, compared with 47.5 million litres a year earlier.
Imports accounted for around 27.6 million litres a day, while domestic facilities, including Dangote and a handful of modular plants, contributed 17.08 million litres on average.
The regulator noted that domestic supply figures were based on discharge data, while imports were calculated from depot receipts, adding that some of the October numbers were still awaiting final reconciliation.
Price disparities also remain stark across the country. Lagos recorded the lowest average pump price at N883 per litre, while motorists in Sokoto paid around N959 per litre. In Enugu, the average price stood at N915, Calabar at N907.5 and Kano at N945.
