Oil Slips as Hopes for Russia–Ukraine Breakthrough Fade and Supply Fears Stir

by Oluwatosin Racheal Alabi

KEY POINTS


  • Oil prices slipped about one per cent as peace hopes between Russia and Ukraine dimmed and supply pressures persisted.
  • Putin’s tough rhetoric, renewed drone attacks and shifting geopolitical positions from the US and Venezuela unsettled traders.
  • Rising US crude, petrol and distillate inventories added to concerns that the market may be heading towards oversupply.

Oil prices drifted lower on Tuesday as traders stepped back to reassess the fragile mood around the Russia–Ukraine peace track, while fresh signals of rising stockpiles and wider supply pressures continued to unsettle the market. 

Brent eased to settle just above sixty-two dollars a barrel and West Texas Intermediate followed the same path, both reversing part of the gains recorded at the start of the week.

The pullback came as investors tried to make sense of a complex political backdrop. In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin received Steve Witkoff, acting as US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, alongside Jared Kushner, in what had been billed as a significant moment for the stalled peace effort. 

The meeting was meant to inject fresh momentum into talks that have repeatedly floundered.

Yet analysts were already bracing for disappointment. Clayton Seigle, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the market had been “kept in check” by a slim hope that a breakthrough might ease curbs on Russian barrels

He added that the optimism was fragile, with the conflict’s energy risks ever present.

Peace Effort Tangles With Renewed Tensions and Global Supply Worries

Putin is due in India for a two-day visit from Thursday, hoping to reinforce ties that have been strained by US pressure on New Delhi. 

The Russian leader is expected to push for wider sales of crude, missile systems and fighter jets, a reminder of Moscow’s determination to retain its foothold in both energy and defence.

Some market watchers thought the Indian angle would help stabilise sentiment. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group said there had initially been “a sense that Russia would keep selling to India”, but the tone shifted once Putin’s warnings landed. It left the impression that peace was not as near as some had hoped.

Alongside the diplomatic theatrics, traders have been juggling concerns about oversupply. A string of drone attacks on Russian infrastructure over the weekend exposed vulnerabilities, yet the broader narrative still leaned towards plentiful supply. 

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said on Monday it had restarted shipments from one berth at its Black Sea terminal after a major Ukrainian attack, easing fears of prolonged outages.

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