KEY POINTS
- Dangote has received its second crude cargo from Ghana amid a sharp reduction in total intake driven by extensive maintenance.
- Nigeria’s petrol imports surged to a 14-month high in November as the refinery’s output fell.
- Dangote says it will supply 1.5 billion litres of petrol in December and January to keep domestic fuel stock steady through the festive period.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has received its second cargo of crude oil from Ghana, marking a quiet but notable shift in supply patterns as Africa’s biggest refinery prepares for months of disrupted operations brought on by heavy maintenance.
The shipment, which carried Ghana’s Sankofa grade, arrived in November. Tracking data from industry analysts shows it is only the second time the refinery has sourced crude from Ghana, at a moment when the plant is trimming its reliance on European barrels and leaning more heavily on West African grades.
Analysts say the adjustment reflects both operational constraints and a strategic reset of the refinery’s crude slate as it braces for outages affecting major units. Crude deliveries into the plant averaged about 380,000 barrels per day between September and November, roughly a third below the volumes seen at the height of activity in July and August.
Refinery Tightens Slate as Extensive Maintenance Takes Shape
Market-intelligence firm Kpler noted that November’s crude receipts were dominated almost entirely by Nigerian grades, led by Bonny Light, with Amenam, Forcados, Utapate and Qua Iboe making up the rest. Sankofa was the month’s only non-Nigerian contribution.
The gradual narrowing of Dangote’s supply basket mirrors its preparation for a significant round of repairs. The Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit, which struggled through the third quarter with repeated outages, was taken offline on 4 December for a shutdown expected to last two months. The Crude Distillation Unit will also undergo a week-long outage toward the end of January.
These constraints have driven a steep fall in purchases from Europe, where refiners in the North Sea and Mediterranean markets had previously supplied a notable share of the plant’s needs.
The refinery’s lower crude intake is now being felt in the domestic downstream market. Petrol production, which recently hovered between 100,000 and 130,000 barrels per day, is expected to fall towards 80,000 barrels per day through February while the RFCC remains offline. Nigeria has responded by increasing its petrol imports, which nearly doubled in November to about 300,000 barrels per day, a 14-month high, with most of the volumes sourced from refiners in the Netherlands and Belgium.
Kpler forecasts that Nigeria’s refinery runs will fall from around 450,000 barrels per day in October to somewhere between 320,000 and 350,000 barrels per day during the December to February stretch. A rebound is expected once maintenance concludes, with throughput potentially climbing above 500,000 barrels per day by April next year.
Amid the pressure, the Dangote Group has moved to reassure the public that fuel supply will remain stable through the festive season. Aliko Dangote, the group’s president and chief executive, said the refinery plans to supply 1.5 billion litres of petrol to the domestic market in both December 2025 and January 2026, equivalent to 50 million litres per day, with a rise to 1.7 billion litres planned for February.
He said the commitment was part of the refinery’s long-held objective of averting holiday fuel scarcity and supporting national energy security. Regulatory authorities have been formally notified of the supply plan.
