KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s non-oil exports rose 48 per cent to a record N9.2 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, driven largely by naira depreciation
- Monthly non-oil export receipts are approaching N1 trillion, though gains are inflated by currency effects rather than volume growth alone
- Oil and gas still dominate exports, with manufacturing and diversification constrained by heavy reliance on energy-linked industries
Nigeria’s non-oil exports rose to an unprecedented N9.2 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, underscoring how currency reforms and pricing dynamics are altering the country’s external trade profile, even as oil continues to dominate export earnings.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that non-oil exports climbed 48 per cent from N6.2 trillion over the same period in 2024, marking the strongest performance since consistent trade data began in 2015.
The surge reflects the lasting impact of the naira devaluation introduced in mid-2023, which has boosted export receipts in local currency terms and improved the competitiveness of Nigerian goods in foreign markets.
The nine-month total already far exceeds the N3.1 trillion recorded for the whole of 2023, the year the currency adjustment was implemented, highlighting how sharply export values have repriced under the new exchange-rate regime.
Currency Repricing Lifts Export Values but Exposes Structural Limits
Quarterly figures point to the scale of the shift. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, non-oil exports stood at N2.996 trillion, up from N2.5 trillion in the same period a year earlier. This compares with N683 billion in the third quarter of 2023 and N438 billion in 2022, illustrating how rapidly export earnings have expanded over a short period.
Monthly data shows Nigeria is now generating close to N1 trillion in non-oil export receipts, with N1.23 trillion recorded in July, followed by N880 billion in August and N890 billion in September. Such levels were largely unattainable before the currency adjustment.
However, the NBS publishes trade figures in naira terms, meaning depreciation has mechanically inflated export values even where shipment volumes have not risen proportionately. As a result, the headline gains mask deeper structural challenges within Nigeria’s export base.
Despite the record performance, non-oil exports accounted for just 12 to 14 per cent of total exports on a monthly basis in the third quarter. Crude oil, refined petroleum products and natural gas continue to dominate foreign exchange inflows, leaving the economy highly exposed to swings in global energy prices.
A closer look at the export mix shows growth concentrated in capital-intensive and energy-linked sectors rather than broad-based manufacturing. Products from chemical and allied industries generated N845 billion in the third quarter, while prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits and tobacco contributed N692 billion. Vehicles, aircraft and related parts accounted for N550.8 billion, while vegetable products brought in N214.5 billion.
By sector, agricultural exports reached N786.6 billion, raw materials stood at N1.0 trillion and solid minerals contributed N100.8 billion. Manufactured goods exports totalled N2.0 trillion during the quarter, compared with about N91 billion in energy-related manufactured exports.
Yet the figures also reveal a persistent imbalance. Nigeria imported N4.75 trillion worth of manufactured goods over the same period, more than double the value of manufactured exports, underscoring the country’s continued reliance on foreign industrial output.
Much of Nigeria’s manufactured exports remain concentrated in fertilisers, refined petroleum products and petrochemicals, limiting diversification into light manufacturing and consumer goods.
The surge in non-oil exports signals that Nigerian producers are responding to improved price incentives following the naira adjustment and demonstrates the economy’s capacity to generate trillion-naira export receipts outside oil under the right conditions. Still, the data suggests that without deeper structural reforms, non-oil exports are unlikely to transform the balance of payments in the near term.
