KEY POINTS
- Brent and U.S. crude rose after sharp losses late last week
- Investors are watching U.S. Ukraine diplomacy for signs of a possible ceasefire
- Ongoing strikes on energy assets and Middle East unrest are adding to supply concerns
Oil prices moved higher on Monday as investors digested the outcome of talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, while keeping a close eye on conflicts that could disrupt global energy supplies.
Brent crude futures rose 67 cents, or 1.1 percent, to trade at $61.31 a barrel by mid morning in Europe. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 65 cents, or 1.15 percent, to $57.39 a barrel. The rebound followed losses of more than 2 percent on Friday, when markets focused on the risk of excess global supply and uncertainty ahead of the weekend meeting between the two leaders.
Trump said on Sunday that negotiations to end the war in Ukraine were making progress, telling reporters that both sides were getting closer to an agreement. Speaking alongside Zelenskiy after their meeting at Trump’s Mar a Lago resort in Florida, the U.S. president said it would become clearer within weeks whether the talks would succeed. He acknowledged that the status of the disputed Donbas region remained unresolved.
Supply risks remain in focus
Analysts said the lack of a breakthrough on territorial issues suggests that a Russia Ukraine peace deal may still face prolonged deadlock. Mingyu Gao, energy and chemical chief researcher at China Futures, said the absence of clear progress has limited expectations of an early end to the conflict, keeping a risk premium in oil markets.
Geopolitical tensions beyond Eastern Europe are also shaping price movements. Russia and Ukraine continued to strike each other’s energy infrastructure over the weekend, raising concerns about further disruptions. Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures in China, said these attacks were reinforcing fears about supply security.
Attention has also turned to the Middle East, where Saudi air strikes in Yemen and escalating rhetoric from Iran have unsettled markets. Iran has warned that it is facing what it described as a full scale confrontation involving the United States, Europe and Israel, adding to uncertainty in a region critical to global oil flows.
Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, said U.S. crude is likely to trade within a $55 to $60 range in the near term. He noted that traders are also monitoring U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and potential fallout from recent U.S. military strikes against ISIS targets in Nigeria, a country that produces about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day.
