KEY POINTS
- Only one in 25 Zambians enjoys a reliable electricity supply from the national grid.
- 73% of Zambians oppose privatizing ZESCO but 78% back independent power competition.
- A large majority want government investment in solar and wind even if it raises prices.
Zambia’s electricity crisis has pushed the country to a breaking point. Load shedding runs up to 21 hours a day. A 1,600-megawatt supply shortfall has crippled households and industries alike. A new Afrobarometer survey conducted in July 2024 captures how ordinary Zambians are living through it and what they want done about it.
The picture is stark. Only about 55% of Zambians live in areas connected to the national power grid, and just one in 25 report a reliable supply from the mains. Nearly half of respondents use alternative sources of electricity, with solar power leading the way.
The crisis traces back to one fundamental vulnerability. Hydropower accounts for 84% of Zambia’s electricity supply, leaving the country acutely exposed to drought and climate variability. The 2023-2024 El Niño event triggered the worst dry spell the country has seen in five decades, draining reservoirs and gutting generation capacity at the Kafue Gorge, Victoria Falls and Kariba North Bank plants. In February 2024, President Hakainde Hichilema declared the drought a national disaster. State utility ZESCO, unable to close the generation gap, cut supply to most of the country for most of each day.
What Zambians want: competition, not privatization
The survey reveals a nuanced public position on the path forward. An overwhelming majority, roughly 73%, oppose privatizing ZESCO outright. But nearly 78% support allowing independent players to generate and distribute electricity alongside the state utility. Zambians want the monopoly broken. They do not want the company sold.
On the question of higher tariffs in exchange for better service, opinion is split almost evenly. About 48% say they would accept higher prices if the electricity improved. Around 42% reject the tradeoff.
The renewable energy shift
The clearest consensus in the survey is on energy diversification. A large majority of respondents want the government to invest in wind and solar power, even if doing so raises electricity prices. That preference aligns with steps the government has already taken. Zambia has removed value-added tax and import duties on solar panels and related products, and has signed agreements with independent power producers to purchase solar-generated electricity.
Citizens have essentially drawn their own roadmap: open the market to competition, invest in renewables and keep ZESCO in public hands. Whether the government moves fast enough to meet that demand is the question Zambia’s energy sector now has to answer.
