KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s oil output has risen from 1 million to 1.8 million barrels per day since May 2023.
- Active drilling rigs increased from fewer than 10 to more than 60 under the Tinubu administration.
- Nigeria has only explored 25 percent of its potential despite holding 37 billion barrels in reserves.
Nigeria has doubled its oil output in three years. Now the government wants to do it again.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, told ministry officials at the 2026 Ministerial Retreat in Abuja on Wednesday that crude oil production has risen from about 1 million barrels per day when President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023 to approximately 1.8 million barrels per day today. The target, he said, remains 2.5 million barrels per day.
Lokpobiri was blunt about what it will take. “Thank you for your initiative in putting this together. But I don’t want it to be just a talk show.” He directed retreat participants to develop a comprehensive framework for increasing production, expanding reserves and strengthening the sector’s contribution to national economic development.
The case for ambitious exploration
Nigeria holds approximately 37 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Despite that endowment, Lokpobiri said the country has barely scratched the surface of what is available.
“We have not explored up to 25 per cent of our potential. We need a clear framework to expand exploration activities and build on our reserves,” he said.
Active drilling rigs tell part of the story. When Tinubu took office, fewer than 10 rigs were operating. That number has grown to more than 60. The minister said the government’s reforms have restored investor confidence, attracting growing interest from buyers and operators across Asia, Europe and North America.
Energy security over energy transition
Lokpobiri said the global conversation has shifted. The world, he argued, is no longer talking purely about energy transition. It is talking about energy security and energy mix. Oil and gas, he said, will remain dominant sources of energy for the foreseeable future.
That framing matters for how Nigeria presents itself to investors. The country is not retreating from hydrocarbons. It is doubling down on them while the opportunity exists, using the 2.5 million barrel target as the organizing goal for the next phase of sector growth.
He said the 2.5 million barrel target is achievable. Nigeria hit that level during the COVID-19 pandemic despite minimal investment at the time. With more than 60 active rigs and sustained policy reform, the minister said the conditions now are considerably more favorable than they were then.
