KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s oil production hit 1.737 million bpd, its highest since 2021.
- OPEC recognized a 54,000 bpd increase, surpassing Nigeria’s quota.
- The government targets 2.3 million bpd by mid-2025.
Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production climbed to its highest level in over three years, hitting 1.737 million barrels per day (bpd) in January.
This is a significant improvement from the 1.1 million bpd recorded in late 2022 and marks a major step toward achieving the government’s revenue goals for 2025.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), this is the highest production level since April 2021, when the country last reached 1.74 million bpd.
Despite this progress, Nigeria still fell short of its 2025 production target of 2.06 million bpd. The oil sector has long been plagued by massive oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment, all of which have affected production capacity.
The government remains optimistic, as new measures to combat oil theft and improve security in the Niger Delta region are starting to show positive results.
OPEC recognizes Nigeria’s output growth
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that Nigeria increased crude oil production by 54,000 bpd in January. However, the oil cartel does not count condensates in its production calculations.
According to This Day Live, OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production rose to 1.539 million bpd, surpassing its OPEC quota by almost 40,000 bpd.
Data obtained from direct communication with Nigerian authorities confirmed a 1.53 million bpd output, although secondary sources reported a slight decline to 1.49 million bpd in January from 1.52 million bpd in December.
Despite these fluctuations, Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s top oil producer, ahead of Algeria, which produced 907,000 bpd, and Congo, which recorded 251,000 bpd.
Government targets 2.3 million barrels per day
The government of Nigeria maintains its dedication to enhance oil production through ongoing support from the NUPRC and Ministry of Petroleum Resources, to accomplish 2 million bpd by the end of 2025.
In October 2024, authorities announced a target of 2.3 million bpd by mid-2025, citing progress in the fight against oil theft as a key factor driving this ambition.
With oil prices benchmarked at $75 to $76 per barrel, the government is banking on higher production to meet its N54.9 trillion revenue target for the 2025 budget.
The successful implementation of these objectives requires that officials fix three key problems which include pipeline defense management, oil infrastructure funding and OPEC agreement compliance.
