KEY POINTS
- Oil prices have fallen due to global growth concerns from the trade war.
- Goldman Sachs predicts lower oil prices in 2025 and 2026.
- China’s tariffs on U.S. imports add to global economic uncertainty.
Oil prices fell on Monday amid concerns that the escalating trade war between the United States and China would weaken global economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
At 0126 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 29 cents, or 0.45%, at $64.47 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading at $61.23 a barrel, down 27 cents, or 0.44%. Both contracts have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies intensified.
Goldman Sachs predicts lower oil prices in 2025 and 2026
According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025. The bank sees Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026.
It forecasts global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 to rise by just 300,000 barrels per day year-on-year, given the weak growth outlook. The demand slowdown is expected to be sharpest for petrochemical feedstocks, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note.
China increases tariffs on U.S. goods amid trade tensions
Beijing increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% on Friday, retaliating against President Donald Trump’s decision to raise duties on Chinese goods. The move heightened concerns about global supply chains being disrupted.
Trump granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics imported from China. However, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that critical technology products from China, including semiconductors, would face new duties within the next two months.
