KEY POINTS
- Eskom’s coal fleet performance has improved, with over half of stations operating above 70% efficiency and some over 90%.
- Unplanned outages have dropped to 8,525MW — the lowest in recorded history — stabilizing winter electricity supply.
- UCLF fell below 20% for the first time in years, positioning the country to avoid load shedding if current trends continue.
South Africa’s embattled power utility, Eskom, is showing rare signs of a turnaround. With more than half of its coal-fired stations now operating above 70% efficiency and three exceeding 90%, the utility has delivered a stable electricity supply throughout winter — a first in years for many South Africans accustomed to rolling blackouts.
The improved performance comes as Eskom continues to battle aging infrastructure, political pressure, and a history of mismanagement.
But for now, the numbers are telling a better story. As of last Friday, the utility reported unplanned outages had dropped to just 8,525 megawatts — the lowest level since records began, narrowly beating the 8,258MW mark from October 2024.
Stable Output and Falling Outages Offer a Rare Respite
“This is real momentum,” said an Eskom spokesperson. “We’re finally seeing the benefits of focused plant maintenance, stronger oversight, and targeted use of emergency reserves.”
The utility says available generation capacity now stands at 30,882MW. Additionally, the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) — a key metric measuring how much power generation is lost to breakdowns — has dropped below the 20% threshold for the first time in years, now sitting at 19.94%.
This improvement bodes well for Eskom’s Winter Outlook report, which projects that if outages remain below 13,000MW, the country will not need to implement load shedding at all. Even if they rise slightly, to 15,000MW, cuts would be limited to 21 days out of a 153-day period — and restricted to Stage 2.
That’s a far cry from the crisis conditions of 2023 and early 2024, when South Africans endured near-daily outages under Stage 6 and 8 schedules, often with little warning.
While the recent improvements are reason for optimism, Eskom’s long-term challenge remains unchanged: shifting its reliance on coal to cleaner energy sources. The utility has set an ambitious target of adding 32 gigawatts of renewable energy to the grid by 2040, but critics say progress is slow.
Still, the recent decline in outages and boost in coal fleet reliability may give Eskom some breathing room — and political capital — to keep that transition on track.
For a utility that’s long been synonymous with crisis, this moment of relative calm is welcome. The question now is whether it’s the beginning of a sustained recovery — or just a winter anomaly.
