KEY POINTS
- Non-oil share of GDP fell to 95.95% in Q2 2025 as oil output rose.
- Crude production hit 1.68 million barrels per day, boosting oil GDP growth to 20.46%.
- Agriculture, telecoms, finance, and trade drove non-oil expansion, though at a slower relative pace.
Nigeria’s economy, long powered by non-oil sectors, saw the balance shift slightly in the second quarter of 2025 as crude oil output rebounded sharply, lifting the petroleum industry’s contribution to growth.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed the non-oil sector accounted for 95.95% of real GDP between April and June, lower than the 96.49% recorded in the same quarter of 2024 and 96.03% in the first three months of this year. While the decline appears marginal, it underscores how even modest increases in oil output can alter the country’s growth structure, despite more than a decade of efforts to diversify.
The oil sector’s share rose as average daily production climbed to 1.68 million barrels per day, up from 1.41 million in the second quarter of last year and 1.62 million in the first quarter of 2025. That drove oil GDP growth to 20.46% year-on-year, compared with just 1.87% in the previous quarter, and lifted its share of the economy to 4.05%, from 3.51% a year ago.
Oil Rebound Reshapes Growth Mix
The oil sector’s revival stood in sharp contrast to the steadier, slower expansion in non-oil activities. Agriculture grew by 2.82%, contributing 26.17% of GDP, slightly below its 26.53% share a year earlier. Services expanded by 3.94%, driven by telecommunications, finance, and trade. Finance and insurance jumped 16.13%, raising their contribution to 3.23% of GDP, while information and communication advanced 6.61%, accounting for 11.18%.
Trade, the largest services subsector, contributed 18.28% but slipped from 18.81% in 2024, reflecting softer consumer demand. Real estate, construction, and utilities also provided positive momentum, helping the non-oil economy expand by 3.64%, faster than 3.26% a year earlier and 3.19% in the first quarter.
Still, because the oil sector grew at a much faster pace, the relative dominance of the non-oil economy edged lower. The figures reaffirm the sector’s vulnerability to swings in oil output and highlight how Nigeria remains tied, at least partially, to crude despite diversification gains.
