KEY POINTS
- Brent crude slid to $67.44 as OPEC+ prepares fresh output hike and Kurdish flows resume.
- Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting expected to approve at least 137,000 barrels a day in new supply.
- U.S. political risks and Gaza peace talks add further uncertainty to oil market outlook.
Oil prices slid for a second straight day as traders braced for another production increase from OPEC+ and the resumption of Kurdish crude exports via Turkey, fueling expectations that supply will outpace demand in the months ahead.
Brent crude for November delivery, which expires Tuesday, slipped 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $67.44 a barrel by 10:26 a.m. in London. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 62 cents, or 1%, to $62.83. The declines add to Monday’s 3%-plus selloff, the sharpest single-day fall since early August.
“The market doesn’t seem to like the idea of more barrels, even though OPEC+ has struggled to meet its own quotas,” said Marex analyst Ed Meir.
OPEC+ Meeting Looms as Supply Rises
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC+, and allies including Russia are set to meet Sunday, where delegates are expected to sign off on at least 137,000 barrels a day of additional production, according to people familiar with the talks. The move comes at a time when Iraqi crude from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has begun flowing again to Turkey after a 30-month hiatus, under an interim deal with Baghdad.
“It’s a double hit for prices,” said PVM Oil Associates’ Tamas Varga. “On the one hand, you’ve got fresh OPEC+ barrels, and on the other, long-blocked Kurdish oil finding its way back to market.”
The return of Kurdish flows adds to a market already grappling with a fragile balance: traders remain on edge over Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries, even as signs of oversupply and patchy demand weigh more heavily.
Beyond supply, political risk has been shifting. U.S. President Donald Trump secured backing from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a Washington-led Gaza peace plan, though Hamas’s position remains uncertain. Analysts say any breakthrough that stabilizes the region could restore normal shipping through the Suez Canal, cutting out a key risk premium currently priced into crude.
At the same time, concerns are rising that a U.S. government shutdown could sap economic momentum and erode fuel demand. “The possibility of weaker consumption from the world’s largest oil market is adding to bearish sentiment,” ANZ analysts said in a note Tuesday.
