KEY POINTS
- Eskom has avoided load shedding since May 15, 2025, and plans to return nearly 4,000 MW to the grid to meet rising winter demand.
- Key performance metrics show improvements in generation reliability, reduced diesel usage, and lower emergency power dependence.
- Eskom continues to warn against illegal connections and urges public cooperation to protect infrastructure and ensure consistent supply.
As South Africa navigates the coldest stretch of winter, Eskom has managed to maintain grid stability and avoid load shedding for more than two consecutive months.
This marks a significant achievement for the embattled power utility, which has often been under intense public scrutiny for frequent outages in previous years.
Eskom reported on Friday, July 25, 2025, that it plans to return an additional 3,960 megawatts (MW) of generating capacity to the grid ahead of Monday evening’s peak demand. This proactive move is expected to further reinforce power reliability as electricity consumption typically surges in winter.
The latest update from the utility reflects a period of improved performance, with unplanned outages averaging 11,555 MW during the week of July 18–24. As of the same date, available generation capacity stood at 30,236 MW, comfortably exceeding Friday’s anticipated demand of 27,715 MW.
According to Eskom, only 26 hours of load shedding were recorded from April 1 to July 24—none of which occurred after mid-May. “With 37 days remaining in Eskom’s Winter Outlook period, the system remains well-positioned to meet demand effectively and avoid disruptions,” the utility stated.
System improvements, reduced outages, and diesel efficiency mark a turning point in Eskom’s operational strategy
Planned maintenance during the third week of July averaged 5,050 MW, while the Energy Availability Factor (EAF)—a key metric of plant reliability—ranged between 62% and 66%, with the monthly average at 63.11%.
The Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures capacity lost due to technical failures, dropped to 28.99% between April 1 and July 24. While this remains 2.4% higher than the same period in 2024, Eskom reported further improvements in recent days, with the UCLF standing at 23.79% as of July 24.
Diesel consumption has also seen a notable reduction. Eskom’s open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) load factor dropped from 8.6% to 1.86% in one week, reflecting a significant decline in emergency power use. From April 1 to July 24, the utility spent R5.616 billion on diesel, generating 952.41 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity—almost double the 493.16 GWh generated during the same period last year.
“From 1 April to 24 July 2025, diesel spend remains within the budget allocated for 1 April to 31 July 2025,” Eskom noted, correcting an earlier reporting error. A figure of R5.897 billion, previously cited as the total spend, was in fact the diesel cost per megawatt-hour (R/MWh).
Despite these encouraging developments, Eskom cautioned that stability is still contingent on keeping unplanned outages below 13,000 MW. “If outages increase to 15,000MW, load shedding could be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 and restricted to Stage 2,” the utility clarified.
The performance of Kusile Unit 6, which has been contributing 720 MW to the grid since March but is not yet commercially commissioned, has also improved Eskom’s generation profile. The year-to-date EAF, excluding Kusile’s output, currently stands at 59.42%, compared to 62.42% in the same period last year.
From April through July, planned maintenance averaged 5,221 MW—roughly 11.11% of total generation. Though slightly lower than the prior week, this represents a modest 0.7% increase from last year’s figures.
In addition to technical performance, Eskom continues to battle infrastructure threats due to illegal electricity connections and meter bypassing. These activities, the utility warned, cause transformer overloads and even explosions in high-risk areas.
“To protect critical infrastructure, Eskom is compelled to implement targeted load reduction in some areas during peak hours,” it said. “We urge all customers to avoid illegal connections and ensure electricity purchases are made through authorised channels.”
Households that qualify for Free Basic Electricity (FBE) are advised to register with their municipalities to ensure access to subsidised electricity during the high-demand season.
The utility has committed to issuing its next system performance update on Friday, August 1, 2025, or earlier should significant changes arise.
