KEY POINTS
- Nersa reduces Sasol Gas’s maximum allowable price by 6% for the third quarter of 2025/26.
- Adjustment follows lower acquisition costs linked to Mozambique supply, oil derivatives and currency shifts.
- Regulator stresses customer prices may differ, with quarterly reviews set to continue into 2026.
South Africa’s energy regulator has approved a reduction in the maximum price Sasol Gas may charge its customers, trimming the cap by 6 percent for the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year in a move intended to reflect lower acquisition costs.
The National Energy Regulator of South Africa, better known as Nersa, said the cut forms part of a framework adopted in June last year that allows the company to adjust its maximum price every quarter as its input costs rise or fall.
This system requires Sasol Gas to submit detailed cost and pricing information on a regular basis to demonstrate that changes in the cap are fair and tied to its underlying costs.
The company delivered the latest set of data on 17 October, covering the period from January to March 2026. Nersa said it assessed the figures against contractual obligations and checked them against gas-flow data from Mozambique, which remains a critical source of supply for the South African market.
Regulator Points to Cost Movements in Mozambique Supply as Main Driver
After completing its review, the regulator approved a maximum gas price of R85.10 per gigajoule for the upcoming quarter, down from R90.57 previously. The shift, Nersa said, largely reflects the cost profile of new gas coming out of Mozambique, with movements in oil-linked derivatives, the exchange rate and the US Producer Price Index all contributing to the overall change.
Nomfundo Maseti, the full-time regulator member overseeing piped-gas matters, cautioned that the cut in the price cap does not automatically mean consumers will see an equivalent fall in what they pay. She noted that Sasol Gas is still expected to charge below the maximum level, but actual price movements will vary.
Nersa said the adjustment nonetheless brings the cap down to a point where customers should benefit, given that the lower ceiling will shape the company’s pricing decisions. Industry consultants welcomed the move, with Ruse Moleshe, managing director of the advisory firm RUBK, saying the reduction should ease operating pressures for industrial and commercial gas users that rely heavily on energy inputs.
Moleshe stressed that the drop does not signal a long-term decline in prices, given that Nersa’s methodology requires a fresh determination after March 2026. Prices could rise or fall again depending on global markets, exchange rates and regional supply issues.
The quarterly review system was introduced to avoid long-term pricing distortions and to ensure that domestic gas buyers are shielded from cost shifts beyond their control.
Meanwhile, Sasol has moved to reassure the market about future gas availability, announcing earlier this month that it has made significant progress on a Methane-Rich Gas supply solution intended to bridge an expected gap in supply from 2028. As production in Mozambique tapers off, the company plans to provide MRG from its Secunda operations between mid-2028 and mid-2030. It is positioning the stop-gap measure as a critical bridge to the introduction of liquefied natural gas, which is expected to form the backbone of the market thereafter.
Dumisani Bengu, Sasol Gas’s senior vice-president for marketing and sales, said the company would continue engaging with customers as it prepares for the transition. He described the MRG plan as an important element in maintaining stability while the country builds out its LNG infrastructure.
The company has presented the initiative as part of its broader strategy to sustain the industrial gas sector through a period of structural change and to avoid supply shocks as traditional reserves diminish.
