Nigeria’s power regulator is courting local and foreign investors to help expand power generation, even as its own chairman concedes that grid losses and unreliable supply are keeping money away.
Musiliu Oseni, chairman of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, made the pitch at the Nigeria Energy Exhibition and Conference in Lagos. He said NERC has built regulatory tools to support commercially viable deals and draw private capital into the market.
Where the openings are
Oseni pointed to the Electricity Act 2023, which opened the grid, off-grid, captive and embedded segments and gave state governments and private operators a bigger role. NERC is pushing embedded generation, which produces power close to the customers who use it. The Federal Government is pursuing its Vision 30:30:30 target through continued liberalization of the sector. Chijioke Okwuokenye, managing director of Abuja Electricity Distribution Company, said net billing and embedded generation could speed up renewable energy adoption.
The risk investors see
Oseni was blunt about the obstacles. Investors have walked away from some of the best distribution companies after reading their books, he said, because losses are large and the path to recovery is unclear. “If I’m to put my money down, what is in it for me?” he asked. Lagos should draw 1,300 to 1,400 megawatts on a normal day but is getting about 700, he said, because of transmission tripping.
Industry is voting with its feet. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria says manufacturers spent more than 1.3 trillion naira on self-generated power in 2025, and more than 30% have left the grid. Another 25% are partway through plans to follow, said Oluwasegun Osindipe, the group’s director of research and economic policy. He cited Band A tariffs rising from 68 naira to 209 naira per kilowatt-hour and members facing six to eight outages a day.
What NERC proposes
Oseni said franchising looks more promising than mergers, since the 2023 law split distribution companies along state lines. He cited two approved franchise deals for Kaduna Disco areas in Zamfara and Southern Kaduna with Access Power. He also questioned putting a $750 million World Bank program only into rural mini-grids, and suggested splitting the money so half supports industrial transmission and distribution.
Oseni also asked manufacturers whether they would pay a premium for better grid supply, noting that diesel at 1,500 naira a liter works out to roughly 500 naira per kilowatt-hour.
