KEY POINTS
- Dangote refinery supplied about 92 percent of Nigeria’s petrol in February, effectively dominating a market estimated at over N14.4 trillion annually.
- Experts and labour leaders warn that heavy reliance on a single refinery could expose Nigeria to monopoly pricing and supply disruptions.
- The government and regulators insist that ending petrol imports is necessary to sustain domestic refining growth, while economists urge competition through additional refineries.
Concerns over potential monopoly in Nigeria’s fuel market are intensifying after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery emerged as the dominant supplier of petrol following the Federal Government’s suspension of petrol import licences.
Energy experts, economists, labour leaders, and private sector stakeholders have raised alarm over the development, warning that heavy dependence on a single refinery could expose the country to pricing risks and supply disruptions. They are also urging the government to ensure strong regulatory oversight and encourage competition in the downstream petroleum sector.
The concerns follow confirmation by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority that no petrol import licences have been issued in 2026. According to the agency, the suspension was made possible because domestic refining capacity, largely driven by the Dangote refinery, is now sufficient to meet national demand.
Data released by the NMDPRA in its February 2026 fact sheet revealed that Dangote refinery supplied about 92 percent of Nigeria’s petrol consumption in February. The figures showed that local refineries produced approximately 36.5 million litres of petrol daily during the month, while imports accounted for only three million litres per day.
The combined supply brought Nigeria’s daily petrol availability to about 39.5 million litres in February. With petrol prices averaging around N1,000 per litre, analysts estimate that the country’s petrol market is currently worth over N14.4 trillion annually.
Dangote refinery remains the only facility producing petrol in the country, while other modular refineries focus mainly on diesel production. This concentration of supply has fundamentally reshaped Nigeria’s downstream sector, which had historically relied heavily on imported fuel due to the long-standing dysfunction of government-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
Experts warn of supply risks and market imbalance
Energy experts say the government must carefully manage the transition to local refining to avoid unintended consequences. Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare described the suspension of petrol import licences as a major policy signal that could influence the behaviour of market participants.
According to him, such regulatory signals can trigger strategic positioning by industry players, including precautionary stockpiling, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure control over supply chains.
He noted that the decline in imports combined with fluctuations in total fuel supply suggests that the market is still adjusting to the new structure. Iledare emphasised that the ultimate objective should be a competitive and stable market rather than merely replacing imports with domestic supply.
Another energy expert, Professor Dayo Ayoade, noted that the regulator has a critical role to play in ensuring that competition remains intact. He said the heavy reliance on Dangote refinery output reflects Nigeria’s limited refining infrastructure rather than deliberate monopolistic behaviour by the refinery.
Ayoade explained that the Petroleum Industry Act empowers regulators to prevent anti-competitive practices and intervene if a dominant player abuses its market position.
