KEY POINTS
- Nigeria recorded a 16.6 million barrel crude oil and condensate production shortfall in January and February 2026, missing the 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day.
- Output fell from 50.5 million barrels in January to 41.6 million barrels in February, with major declines across key terminals including Qua Iboe, Bonny, Forcados and Escravos.
- Despite oil prices rising to between $110 and $120 per barrel, Nigeria’s weak production levels prevented it from maximising potential revenue gains.
Nigeria recorded a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in January and February 2026, according to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC,. The figures highlight a continued mismatch between projected output and actual performance, despite government assurances and the 1.84 million barrels per day production benchmark contained in the 2026 federal budget.
Data analysed showed that Nigeria produced a total of 50.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in January, while production declined significantly in February to about 41.6 million barrels. This brought cumulative output for the two months to roughly 92 million barrels.
However, based on the 2026 budget assumptions, Nigeria was expected to produce about 57 million barrels in January and approximately 51.5 million barrels in February, amounting to about 108.6 million barrels within the period. The difference between projected and actual output resulted in the shortfall of roughly 16.6 million barrels.
Daily Production Averages Show Widening Deficit
Further breakdown of the NUPRC data showed that in January, total liquids output averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, falling short of the 1.84 million barrels per day target by approximately 210,000 barrels daily.
In February, the gap widened further as production averaged about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a deficit of around 360,000 barrels per day. These cumulative daily shortfalls translated into the overall two-month production deficit.
Crude oil remained the dominant component of Nigeria’s output. In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day before declining to roughly 1.31 million barrels per day in February, pulling down total production for the month.
Condensate production, although smaller in volume, provided modest support. It averaged slightly above 116,000 barrels per day in January and rose marginally to about 122,000 barrels per day in February.
The drop in production was largely driven by reduced output across key Niger Delta terminals. Production at the Qua Iboe terminal declined from about 7.4 million barrels in January to roughly 5.9 million barrels in February, indicating a fall of around 1.5 million barrels.
Similarly, output at the Bonny terminal dropped from approximately 7.2 million barrels in January to about 6.2 million barrels in February, representing a decrease of about 1 million barrels.
At the Forcados terminal, production fell from roughly 7.9 million barrels in January to about 6.5 million barrels in February, a decline of about 1.4 million barrels. The Escravos terminal also recorded a reduction, with output dropping from about 4.6 million barrels to around 3.9 million barrels, representing a loss of roughly 700,000 barrels.
Production at the Brass terminal decreased from about 2.5 million barrels to around 2.1 million barrels, while the Tulja-Okwuibome stream and several smaller terminals also experienced declines.
