KEY POINTS
- A study of 3,139 plants finds fossil fuels will supply 61 percent of Africa’s power by 2030.
- Expanding hydropower will increase Africa’s total water use across the continent by 73 percent.
- Coal and gas expansion will drive a projected 19 percent rise in Africa’s carbon dioxide emissions.
Africa is building more power plants than ever. The lights are coming on in more homes. But a new study makes one thing plain: the continent is not walking away from fossil fuels anytime soon.
Researchers tracked 3,139 power plants across Africa, covering facilities already operating, those under construction and those planned through 2030. The findings, published in Nature Communications, show that total power generation will rise by 57 percent by 2030. Renewables will grow too. Their share of total electricity output will climb from 19 percent to 34 percent. Even so, by the end of this decade, 61 percent of Africa’s electricity will still come from burning fossil fuels.
Only about 57 percent of Africans currently have access to electricity. The majority of those without power live in sub-Saharan Africa. Reaching everyone by 2030, as the United Nations has set out, will require the continent to build fast. The study suggests African countries are trying. The question is what they are building.
Hydropower expansion brings its own risks
Large hydropower projects are planned or under construction in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Mozambique. But the study found that expanding hydropower will increase water use across the continent by 73 percent. That matters in a region already under pressure from droughts.
The 2024 drought in southern Africa offered a preview. Zambia fell into daily blackouts when the Kariba hydroelectric dam did not have enough water to run its turbines. Hydropower also disrupts river systems and reduces freshwater biodiversity. Fish populations take a hit. So do crocodiles and hippos, animals that draw wildlife tourism income.
Coal and gas expansion pushing emissions up
Large gas-fired power plants are going up in Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. Coal plants are in the pipeline in Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Botswana. Together, coal and gas expansion is the biggest driver of a projected 19 percent rise in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
That trajectory puts Africa slightly short of its commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Solar and wind point toward a different path. They use little water. They produce far fewer emissions. They are cheaper to build and can be completed in one to two years. Morocco, South Africa, Egypt, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana are already investing in both.
The researchers say governments need to plan energy and water together, not as separate problems. The data is now available. The choices still have to be made.
