KEY POINTS
- Eskom tariffs have risen 973% since 2008.
- Electricity prices reached 241.64c/kWh by March 2026.
- Prices could hit 10 times 2008 levels by 2027.
South African electricity prices are on course to reach roughly 10 times their 2008 levels by the end of the 2026/27 financial year, far outpacing the country’s inflation rate over the same period.
The analysis by Codera Analytics shows that Eskom’s standard electricity tariffs have risen sharply over the past 18 years, placing sustained pressure on households and businesses.
Since 2008, Eskom’s aggregate standard tariffs have increased at an average annual rate of 14.5%, compared with average consumer price inflation of about 5% a year.
The result is a 973% increase in Eskom tariffs since 2008, compared with a 241% rise in the consumer price index. The gap between electricity prices and general inflation has widened considerably since the late 2000s.
Eskom’s average electricity price stood at 24.7 cents per kilowatt-hour in the 2008/09 financial year. By March 2026, the average price had risen to 241.64 cents per kWh.
Based on the current pace of increases, electricity prices are expected to exceed 10 times their 2008 level by the end of the 2026/27 financial year.
By comparison, consumer prices are projected to be around 2.5 times their 2008 level.
The sharp divergence represents a major change from earlier decades, when Eskom’s tariff increases generally tracked inflation more closely. The major shift began in the 2008/09 financial year.
Before then, electricity tariff adjustments approved by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, or Nersa, had generally remained in the low single digits. The approved increase for 2007/08 was 5.9%.
Nersa initially approved a 14.2% increase for 2008/09. Eskom subsequently sought a 60% revision, citing rising production costs and the need to fund major capital projects.
Nersa eventually approved an additional 13.3% increase in June 2008, taking the total approved adjustment for the financial year to 27.5%.
The increases remained high in subsequent years. A 31.3% increase was approved for FY2010, followed by increases in the mid-20% range between FY2011 and FY2013.
Since then, annual adjustments have varied between single- and double-digit increases. The latest approved increase was 8.76%, which took effect on April 1, 2026.
Eskom points to rising costs and debt
Eskom has attributed the long-term increase in electricity prices to several financial and operational pressures.
These include higher coal and diesel costs, rising municipal debt, electricity theft and declining electricity sales.
The utility has also argued that historical tariff decisions did not always allow it to recover the full cost of supplying electricity, prompting repeated calls for tariffs to become more cost-reflective.
Eskom has taken several tariff-related disputes to court, challenging Nersa decisions that it considered insufficient to cover its costs.
The utility has also linked higher tariffs to its large capital investment programme, which included the construction of the Medupi, Kusile and Ingula power stations and major transmission network expansion.
Eskom’s state-guaranteed debt stood at R328 billion at the end of its latest financial year, with significant government support directed toward its capital programme. Eskom is now preparing to submit its seventh Multi-Year Price Determination application to Nersa.
The application will determine the utility’s allowable revenue from the 2029 financial year onward and could influence the structure and level of electricity tariffs in the years ahead.
Eskom has said it intends to ask Nersa to restructure the existing retail tariff framework to make it more closely aligned with its costs while also improving affordability for households and businesses.
The debate comes as South African consumers continue to face higher electricity costs and the utility seeks a tariff structure that can support its financial position and long-term investment needs.
The trajectory since 2008 shows how sharply electricity prices have diverged from broader consumer inflation, with the gap becoming one of the defining features of South Africa’s power-sector economics.
