KEY POINTS
- NMDPRA approved 830,000 tonnes of Q4 petrol imports.
- Six retail companies received the allocations.
- Domestic refineries supplied nearly 80% of H1 2026 petrol.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, has approved 830,000 tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit imports for the fourth quarter of 2026 as tighter global fuel markets raise concerns over supply.
The NMDPRA approved the petrol import volumes for six retail companies on September 18, maintaining the import window despite the significant increase in Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity.
The approved volume is understood to be similar to the allocation granted for the third quarter, suggesting that the regulator is keeping imported petrol as a supply buffer through the end of the year.
The 830,000-tonne allocation is equivalent to roughly 9 million barrels of petrol, based on a standard conversion of about 7.3 barrels per metric tonne. The actual volume delivered could vary depending on the specifications of the imported cargoes.
The decision comes as international gasoline markets face tighter supply conditions and stronger demand for prompt cargoes amid disruptions to global refined-product flows.
International petroleum-product markets have come under renewed pressure following disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
The disruptions have affected refined-product trading routes and tightened supply in some markets, with European countries also facing concerns over fuel availability as the final quarter of the year approaches.
The development is significant for Nigeria because changes in global petrol prices can directly affect domestic supply costs under the deregulated downstream petroleum market.
NMDPRA has previously explained that pump prices are influenced by several factors, including crude oil costs, the timing between crude procurement and refinery delivery, imported petrol cargo prices, transportation expenses and marine and inland logistics charges.
The latest import approvals could therefore provide additional supply flexibility if domestic production or distribution faces shortfalls.
Dangote refinery reduces import dependence
Nigeria’s petrol supply structure has changed significantly since the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its contribution to the domestic market.
NMDPRA data showed that domestic refineries supplied nearly 80 per cent of petrol available in Nigeria during the first six months of 2026, leaving imports with slightly more than 20 per cent of the market.
Before the expansion of local refining, petrol imports were a major source of supply and accounted for a much larger share of the market.
The growing contribution of domestic refineries has reduced Nigeria’s exposure to international petrol markets, although imports remain available as a contingency mechanism when domestic production, logistics or market conditions create supply gaps.
Petrol imports were also reported to have fallen from about 400,000 barrels per day in 2024 to around 83,000 barrels per day in 2026, underscoring the impact of increased domestic refining. The continued approval of import volumes shows that Nigeria has not completely moved away from imported petrol despite the growth of domestic refining.
The Q4 allocation provides an additional supply option at a time when international market disruptions could make imported fuel more expensive.
It also highlights the balancing act facing Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector: strengthening domestic refining while retaining access to international supplies when local production cannot fully meet demand.
The Dangote refinery has significantly expanded Nigeria’s refining capacity and reduced dependence on imported petrol, but the latest NMDPRA approval suggests that imports will continue to play a supporting role in maintaining supply security.
The development is likely to keep attention focused on the pace of domestic refining, the reliability of local fuel supply and the effect of international market movements on petrol prices in Nigeria.
