KEY POINTS
- NGX Oil & Gas Index surges over 5% in early October, nearing the 2,700 resistance level.
- Aradel, Seplat, and Eterna drive gains, supported by improving oil output and investor sentiment.
- Sector rebounds after nearly a year of sluggish performance tied to weak crude prices and low trading activity.
The Nigerian oil and gas sector is enjoying a strong rebound this month, as renewed investor confidence and firm price action in a handful of key stocks lift the NGX Oil & Gas Index toward its highest level in ten months.
The index, which tracks the performance of listed oil and gas companies on the Nigerian Exchange, NGX, opened October at 2,523 points and climbed to 2,664 points by October 8. The surge, driven largely by Aradel Holdings, Seplat Energy, and Eterna Plc, has put the index within touching distance of the crucial 2,700-point resistance level.
This rally marks a sharp turnaround from the long slump that followed its December 2024 peak of 2,712 points. The index had lost more than 9% in the first quarter of 2025 amid weak investor sentiment and macroeconomic headwinds that dampened activity across the sector.
While a mild 4.7% recovery in June offered some relief, it wasn’t until the third quarter that momentum truly began to shift. The index climbed 3.5% in Q3, signalling the start of what analysts now describe as a cautious recovery driven by selective buying and improving fundamentals in the upstream sector.
Aradel’s Outperformance Anchors Sector Recovery
Aradel Holdings has been the standout performer, effectively anchoring the oil and gas index through months of uneven market activity. The company’s shares surged nearly 20% in September alone, closing the third quarter at N615, up from N514.50 at the start of the period.
The momentum continued into October, with Aradel adding a further 2.4%. Given its weight—representing over a third of the NGX Oil & Gas Index—its strong run has been pivotal in driving the sector’s overall recovery.
Seplat Energy and Eterna Plc have also played key supporting roles. Eterna’s stock has gained over 23% this month, trading at around N41.50 and potentially heading toward its April 2025 high of N49.95 if current momentum holds. Seplat, meanwhile, has risen 10%, moving past a major resistance at N5,600 to trade near N5,917, underlining the return of investor appetite for blue-chip oil assets.
“Investors appear to be positioning for stronger earnings from energy firms ahead of year-end,” said a Lagos-based market analyst. “Stable crude production and better pricing have encouraged renewed participation from both institutional and retail players.”
Nigeria’s crude oil output has been rising steadily, helping to underpin investor optimism in the sector. According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, daily production climbed from 1.7 million to 1.83 million barrels per day between January and July 2025. The number of active drilling rigs also rose from 31 to 50 during the same period—a sign of operational stability returning to the upstream segment.
These developments have helped reassure investors after years of production volatility caused by oil theft, underinvestment, and regulatory uncertainty. The improved figures, coupled with stable global oil prices and Nigeria’s push to attract new investment through reforms, have strengthened market sentiment around listed energy stocks.
