KEY POINTS
- Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude in early 2026 despite local refinery shortages
- Dangote refinery operated far below capacity, receiving only about 27 percent of required crude supply
- NNPC and industry players are exploring alternative sourcing as supply gaps and pricing pressures persist
Nigeria exported a total of 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to grapple with insufficient domestic crude supply.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that 31.31 million barrels were exported in January, while 24.08 million barrels were shipped in February. During the same period, total crude production stood at 81.94 million barrels, leaving about 26.55 million barrels for local refining.
In January, production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day, with exports at 1.01 million barrels per day. However, output declined in February to 1.31 million barrels per day, with exports dropping to 0.86 million barrels per day.
Despite Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer, the Dangote refinery has continued to face challenges in securing adequate crude supply locally, forcing it to rely partly on imports to sustain operations.
Supply gap widens as refinery struggles to meet capacity
The refinery, which requires about 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly to operate at full capacity, has consistently received far less than needed. Between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, it reportedly experienced a supply shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels.
Available data shows that the refinery received only 29.21 million barrels within the five-and-a-half-month period, compared to an estimated requirement of 108.74 million barrels, representing a supply performance of just 26.9 percent.
Monthly supply figures reveal persistent deficits, with deliveries ranging between 4.3 million and 6.45 million barrels, significantly below operational needs. Even in March, only 3.6 million barrels were delivered within the first half of the month.
The situation has been compounded by global oil market disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-US conflict, which has affected supply chains and pricing.
As a result, the refinery has implemented multiple fuel price adjustments, pushing petrol prices above N1,300 per litre before moderating to around N1,250 per litre. The company attributed these increases to high crude procurement costs and limited access to domestic supply.
According to the refinery, it has been receiving only about five cargoes of crude monthly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, far below the 13 cargoes required for optimal operations. Additionally, these supplies are priced at international market rates, further increasing operational costs.
