Key Points
- Nigeria’s oil production dropped to 1.538 million bpd in October.
- Government and NUPRC figures differ on October oil output.
- Achieving the 2M bpd goal requires transparency and collaboration.
Nigeria’s total oil production fell by 0.39% in October, dropping to 1.538 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.544 million bpd in September, according to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The report, published over the weekend, revealed a mixed performance in oil production components. While liquid crude oil production increased slightly by 0.67% to 1.333 million bpd, condensate production saw a sharp decline of 6.9%, falling to 204,806 bpd from September’s 219,997 bpd.
Key production highlights
The NUPRC data showed that Bonny Terminal recorded the highest crude oil receipts in October, totaling 6.26 million barrels. This was followed by Forcados Terminal with 5.093 million barrels and Escravos Terminal with 4.339 million barrels. Nigeria’s newest crude grade, Utapate, contributed 1.226 million bpd during the same period.
Despite NUPRC’s figures, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, recently celebrated what he described as a landmark achievement of 1.8 million bpd in October. The minister emphasized ongoing efforts to achieve the federal government’s target of 2 million bpd by year-end.
Government optimism and sector challenges
During a recent ceremony, Lokpobiri praised the teamwork within the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), attributing the increased output to enhanced collaboration across leadership, partners, and security agencies.
“This is achievable. We are fully aligned and committed to delivering two million barrels by the end of the year,” Lokpobiri said.
Chief Production War Room Officer, NNPC, Lawal Musa, echoed the sentiment, highlighting the coordinated push for increased production, which saw output rise from 1.43 million bpd in June to over 1.8 million bpd in October. According to a report by Vanguard, he attributed the success to strategic collaboration and clear value-focused targets.
Chief Upstream Investment Officer, Bala Wunti, credited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership for restoring security to critical pipelines, reopening previously shut wells, and boosting investor confidence. “Critical thinking and transparent communication were central to achieving this milestone,” Wunti said.
Conflicting data raises questions
Despite the government’s celebratory stance, the NUPRC report presented a more conservative figure, leading to conflicting narratives about Nigeria’s production levels. An industry insider, speaking anonymously, insisted that the NUPRC data should be regarded as the authoritative source.
“NUPRC is the custodian of Nigeria’s oil production data. Political statements should not be taken as a substitute for regulatory records,” the source said.
Looking ahead
While the federal government remains optimistic about hitting its 2 million bpd target, the discrepancies in production figures underscore the need for clarity and transparency in reporting. Nigeria’s ability to align political goals with regulatory realities will play a crucial role in shaping the sector’s future.
