KEY POINTS
- Nigeria produced 1.49 million barrels of crude oil daily in April, slightly below OPEC’s 1.5 million barrels per day quota.
- The country has now failed to meet its OPEC production target for nine consecutive months since July 2025.
- Crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and underinvestment continue to hinder oil production growth.
Nigeria has once again failed to meet its crude oil production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, after recording an average daily output of 1.49 million barrels in April 2026, slightly below the organisation’s 1.5 million barrels per day allocation.
Latest figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that the country produced an average of 1,488,540 barrels of crude oil daily during the month under review, representing about 99 per cent of the OPEC target.
When condensate production was added, Nigeria’s total oil output rose to 1.66 million barrels per day
The latest production figures mean Nigeria has remained below its OPEC quota for the ninth consecutive month since July 2025, despite repeated assurances by government officials and regulators about rising output levels.
This development also contrasts with earlier statements by the NUPRC, which claimed last month that Nigeria’s oil production had climbed to an average of 1.8 million barrels per day.
According to the commission’s latest report, combined crude oil and condensate production peaked at 1.85 million barrels per day in April, while the lowest production level recorded during the month stood at 1.46 million barrels per day.
Although April’s figures represent an improvement compared to March production levels, they were still insufficient for Nigeria to fully meet its assigned OPEC quota
Crude theft and pipeline vandalism continue to affect production
Nigeria’s oil sector has continued to struggle with several longstanding challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and inadequate investment in the upstream petroleum sector.
These issues have consistently limited the country’s ability to increase production capacity despite government efforts aimed at boosting output and attracting investors. Data from previous months showed fluctuating production levels throughout the year.
Nigeria produced 1.38 million barrels per day in March, reflecting an increase of about 69,000 barrels from the 1.31 million barrels recorded in February. However, the March figure still fell short of the OPEC quota by about 117,000 barrels per day.
The February figures also represented a significant decline of about 146,000 barrels per day compared to earlier output levels, widening Nigeria’s production deficit under the OPEC arrangement.
The country’s production performance in 2025 also reflected persistent instability in the oil sector.
Although Nigeria exceeded its OPEC target in January 2025 by producing 1.54 million barrels per day, production later declined below quota levels in February and March before experiencing minor recoveries in subsequent months.
Reports indicated that Nigeria only met or slightly surpassed its OPEC production allocation in January, June, and July 2025, while output fell below the benchmark during the remaining months of the year.
Production also weakened toward the end of 2025, declining from 1.436 million barrels per day in November to 1.422 million barrels per day in December before recording a slight rebound in January 2026.
Industry stakeholders have continued to express concerns over the country’s inability to consistently meet production targets, warning that the shortfall could negatively impact government revenue, foreign exchange earnings, and overall economic stability.
