The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission says it will work to restore more than 788,000 barrels a day of shut in crude, a volume equal to more than 40% of the roughly 1.8 million barrels a day Nigeria produced in July.
Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan set out the target Tuesday at the regulator’s fifth anniversary in Abuja, where Vice President Kashim Shettima represented President Bola Tinubu. She said the volumes have been identified across 63 operators.
Why shut in crude matters
Shut in production is oil that wells could pump but do not, because something is blocking the flow. Typical causes include pipeline vandalism, community disputes, damaged infrastructure and disagreements between joint venture partners. Each barrel idled at the source is revenue the government never sees.
On paper, the gap is large. Restoring all of it would lift output toward 2.6 million barrels a day, closer to the government’s goal of 3 million by 2030. Not every shut in barrel is economic to recover, and the regulator has said it will focus on volumes with commercial value.
How the regulator plans to do it
Eyesan said the commission will keep licensing regular and predictable and concentrate on what moves the numbers. Alongside the shut in volumes, she named two other priorities: pushing offshore projects valued at $30 billion to $50 billion to final investment decision, and lifting domestic gas delivery from about two thirds of the obligation to full compliance.
The regulator also says it is speeding up approvals. At least 77 wells have been reentered this year, and 128 wells have been approved for drilling.
In January, it opened a 90 day fast track window for approving wells, field development plans and rig mobilizations, to support output targets of 2 million barrels a day in 2027 and 3 million in 2030.
The 2026 licensing round, announced the same day, puts 40 blocks on offer to bring in new investment. The commission also expects its measures to add 20 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves and 500 million standard cubic feet a day of production, supporting the Decade of Gas.
The gas target matters too. Operators are required to supply a set share of their gas to the domestic market, and Eyesan said delivery now stands at about two thirds of that obligation. Closing the gap would help power plants and industry that struggle to get fuel.
Another speaker at the event said more than 90 million Nigerians still lack reliable electricity, forcing homes and industries to rely on expensive self generation.
What could slow the recovery
Targets are one thing. Shut in volumes often depend on factors outside the regulator’s control, such as security on pipelines, community agreements and disputes between partners, which can take years to settle. Funding for repairs is another hurdle.
Prices add urgency, with Brent now near $100 a barrel.
Whether the 788,000 barrels actually come back will show up in monthly production data, not in speeches or targets. Investors, lenders and the treasury will be watching those numbers closely.
